FIRE Readiness Calculator
FIRE Calculator: Can I Retire Early?
Estimate whether your portfolio may cover early retirement — healthcare before Medicare, Social Security timing, and a poor-market stress band. For savings path, account mix, taxes, and Monte Carlo, run a full Praxion plan.
Last updated: 2026-08-10
The short answer
Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) is not a single portfolio threshold. Whether you can leave work at 45 or 50 depends on annual spending, how long you must self-fund healthcare before Medicare, when you plan to claim Social Security, and whether most of your nest egg sits in taxable versus tax-deferred accounts.
The classic 25× rule (4% withdrawal) assumes roughly a 30-year horizon and often ignores the pre-Medicare healthcare line item entirely. Longer horizons to age 95 from a FIRE age in the low 40s often lead planners to use a more conservative starting withdrawal rate than the traditional 4% rule — commonly discussed in the ~3.0–3.5% range as an illustrative planning band, before taxes and sequence-of-returns risk.
The readiness calculator below does not model ongoing savings, income, or account types. It inflates spending to your target FIRE year, estimates pre-Medicare healthcare for bridge years from your state and household, applies a horizon-based withdrawal heuristic, and shows a poor-market stress band. It is illustrative — not Monte Carlo and not a substitute for account-level tax modeling.
Your FIRE number is not just how much you have — it is how you access it
Two households with the same portfolio total can have opposite FIRE outcomes depending on taxable brokerage, Roth basis, Traditional 401(k)/IRA balances, and when Social Security and Medicare begin.
Taxable brokerage → Roth basis → Traditional (59½ / Rule of 55) → Social Security → Medicare
Praxion’s differentiated model coordinates tax-aware withdrawal sequencing, Roth conversion windows against MAGI and ACA subsidy cliffs, IRMAA after 65, and Monte Carlo success probability — not just a spending multiple.
Example on a full plan: “If I FIRE at 48 with $900K, how might Roth conversions affect ACA subsidies before Medicare?”
How FIRE differs from “retire at 50”
A fixed-age page models one retirement year. FIRE intent is variable age (typically 40–55), often with aggressive savings rates, taxable-account-heavy bridges before 59½, and a longer planning horizon that may justify a lower starting withdrawal rate.
Use the retirement-by-age cluster when your question is “Can I retire at exactly 50?” Use this page when your target age is flexible and you want a FIRE number, stress band, and healthcare bridge in one view.
When this scenario tends to work — and when it gets harder
Favorable signals
- Large taxable brokerage or Roth basis to fund ages before 59½ without penalties
- Employer retiree health coverage or a spouse’s plan until Medicare
- Flexible discretionary spending if markets turn early in retirement
- Social Security delayed to FRA or 70 — portfolio bridges the gap
Challenging signals
- Most assets in Traditional 401(k)/IRA with little taxable buffer before 59½
- High fixed spending with limited ability to trim healthcare or housing
- Planning to claim Social Security at 62 while retiring in your 40s
- Single-income household with no employer coverage alternative before Medicare
Industry benchmarks (sanity check)
Industry savings-multiple guides rarely target “retire today at 45.” A workable framing: 12–15× annual spending as a floor, plus an explicit pre-Medicare healthcare bridge modeled from your state and household (premiums and subsidies vary widely by age, MAGI, plan, and year). After 65, Fidelity’s 2026 estimate averages ~$185,500/person lifetime — on top of anything spent before Medicare.
How much do you need to FIRE?
Many searches start with annual spending divided by a withdrawal rate. The table below shows illustrative portfolio targets at three commonly discussed rates — planning math only, not Praxion recommendations.
| Annual spending | 3.0% withdrawal rate | 3.5% withdrawal rate | 4.0% withdrawal rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $1,333,333 | $1,142,857 | $1,000,000 |
| $60,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,714,286 | $1,500,000 |
| $80,000 | $2,666,667 | $2,285,714 | $2,000,000 |
| $100,000 | $3,333,333 | $2,857,143 | $2,500,000 |
But your actual FIRE number may be higher or lower. Taxes, healthcare, Social Security, account access, and sequence risk can materially change the amount you need.
The readiness calculator below uses a horizon-based withdrawal rate (for example, ~3% for a FIRE age before 55), not necessarily the columns above. The 4.0% column reflects the classic rule-of-thumb contrast only.
FIRE readiness calculator
Illustrative readiness check — not a savings-path or account-mix model. Enter age, portfolio, spending, state, and household to estimate a FIRE number, pre-Medicare healthcare bridge, and poor-market stress band. Run a full Praxion plan for Monte Carlo success probability and tax-aware withdrawal sequencing.
Key variables
Withdrawal rate vs horizon
Early retirees often plan 40–50 years to age 95. Longer horizons frequently lead to more conservative starting withdrawal rates than the classic 4% rule designed for a 30-year horizon — often discussed around 3.0–3.5% as an illustrative band. Praxion’s full planner uses Monte Carlo to test whether your specific plan works.
Healthcare before Medicare
ACA marketplace premiums rise with age and vary by state. Subsidies depend on household MAGI — Roth conversions and taxable withdrawals during bridge years can change net premium materially.
59½ and Rule of 55
IRAs generally face a 10% penalty before 59½. Separating from an employer at 55+ may unlock penalty-free 401(k) withdrawals from that plan only — not your entire nest egg.
Sequence-of-returns risk
Poor returns in the first decade of retirement can permanently impair sustainability. The stress band below illustrates one haircut scenario — full Monte Carlo explores many paths.
Frequently asked questions
How much do I need to retire early (FIRE)?
Your FIRE number depends on annual spending, target retirement age, healthcare before Medicare, Social Security timing, account access, and withdrawal rate. Longer horizons often use more conservative starting rates than 4% — but your specific plan needs Monte Carlo and tax modeling, not a single multiple.
What happens to healthcare if I retire before Medicare?
Most early retirees use ACA marketplace plans until age 65. Premiums rise with age and vary by state. Subsidies depend on household income — coordinating Roth conversions and withdrawals matters.
Is the 25× rule enough for FIRE?
For many FIRE scenarios, 25× may understate need once you add 10–25 pre-Medicare years, penalty windows before 59½, and a lower sustainable withdrawal rate. Treat 25× as a starting conversation, not a finish line.
Ask Praxion AI
On a full plan, explore trade-offs in plain language — grounded in your numbers, not generic advice.
- If I FIRE at 48 with $900K, how might Roth conversions affect ACA subsidies before Medicare?
- What withdrawal order might reduce taxes in the first 10 years of early retirement?
- How sensitive is my plan if I claim Social Security at 62 instead of 67?
Opens QuickStart — no account required to begin.
Explore next
Related guides
- The 4% Rule Explained — Withdrawal rate basics and limits
- Early Retirement Roth Conversion Windows — Bracket-fill strategy before RMDs
- When Is a Good Time to Retire? — Timing vs savings amount
Model your full retirement plan
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Praxion Finance is a decision-support tool, not a registered investment adviser.